In a lecture to be delivered this evening (Wednesday 29 February) to the Yorkshire HR Directors Forum in Leeds, Dr John Philpott, Chief Economic Adviser at the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD), will argue that even a relatively modest economic recovery in 2012 could see UK unemployment stabilise at around the current rate of 8.4%, while a stronger recovery has the potential to result in a sudden sharp fall in the jobless total