London, 21 October 2026 – UK median basic pay awards edged up to 3.1% in the three months to September 2026, according to Brightmine’s latest pay trends analysis. The figure is up from 3% in the previous two rolling quarters, but remains below the 3.4% recorded at the start of 2026.
Brightmine said 61.9% of settlements fell between 3% and 3.99%. While 36.8% of awards matched the increase made at the same point last year, 34.2% were lower and 28.9% were higher.
2027 pay awards expected to remain at 3%
Employers are forecasting a median pay award of 3% for 2027. Brightmine said ongoing affordability pressures, including higher employer National Insurance costs, are likely to constrain the scope for bigger increases.
The latest increase to the Real Living Wage could also create further pressure within pay structures. At 4.8%, it stands above both the current 3.1% median award and the 3% forecast for next year, potentially narrowing differentials for lower-paid employees.
Brightmine’s analysis is based on 42 pay settlements effective between 1 July and 30 September 2026, covering more than 650,000 UK employees.
About Brightmine
Brightmine provides people data, insight and advisory services to help employers make informed decisions on pay, reward and workforce strategy.
“Pay awards have edged up, but there is little evidence of a significant shift in the overall picture.”
Sheila Attwood, Senior Content Manager, Data and HR Insights, Brightmine
