Employer confidence improves but hiring recovery remains fragile, REC finds

REC JobsOutlook chart showing employer confidence trends

The REC’s latest JobsOutlook shows a modest improvement in business sentiment, while permanent hiring intentions have softened.

UK employers are feeling more confident about the economy and hiring investment, but sentiment remains negative and recruitment intentions have weakened, according to the Recruitment and Employment Confederation’s latest JobsOutlook.

Economic confidence rose by eight percentage points to a net balance of -39% in the June–August 2026 period. Confidence in making hiring and investment decisions improved by six points to -8%. These are net balances, reflecting positive responses minus negative responses, rather than the proportion of employers expressing confidence.

“Businesses are feeling better than they were three months ago, but let’s not mistake improvement for recovery.”

Maxine Bligh, interim chief executive, REC

Short-term permanent hiring intentions edged down one point to a net balance of +8%. Medium-term intentions fell four points to +6%, suggesting that improved confidence has yet to translate into a stronger commitment to recruitment.

Temporary hiring intentions were also subdued. The short-term net balance fell one point to +2%, while the medium-term balance remained at +5%. Regionally, the North and Midlands recorded short-term permanent hiring balances of +11% and +10% respectively; the Midlands led medium-term permanent intentions at +12%.

The REC called for measures to support employment and investment, including restoring the employers’ National Insurance threshold, improving access to childcare, health and transport, and making skills funding more flexible. These are the organisation’s policy recommendations.

The survey was conducted by Whitestone Insight among 704 UK employers between 15 June and 18 August 2026, with weighting by region, industry and public/private sector. The latest results point to improvement from a weak base rather than a fully established hiring recovery.

Key takeaways

  • Business confidence is improving but remains in negative territory.
  • Permanent hiring intentions have softened despite the better sentiment.
  • Recruiters should distinguish a modest confidence rebound from a sustained hiring recovery.

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