Meet the contributors
 Joel Barnett Fortune Hill |
 Chris Eastwood Penfold |
 Luke Hicks Malt |
 Chris Harrison Lawsons |
 Charlotte Sallabank Katten Muchin Rosenman |
 Jasmine Dhillon Spencer West |
With the Autumn Budget approaching, businesses are looking for clarity on employment costs, pensions, tax, independent talent and the conditions needed to invest and hire. Onrec has brought together views from six experts across executive search, pensions, freelance workforce management, finance and employment law.
In this Onrec Explores round-up
- Joel Barnett, Fortune Hill
- Chris Eastwood, Penfold
- Luke Hicks, Malt
- Chris Harrison, Lawsons
- Charlotte Sallabank, Katten Muchin Rosenman LLP
- Jasmine Dhillon, Spencer West LLP
Click a contributor’s name to jump to their full commentary.
Joel Barnett, Founder and Chief Executive, Fortune Hill
Planning for different outcomes
“Ahead of the Budget, we’re seeing the most enlightened leadership teams are scenario-planning rather than trying to predict one outcome.
“If the Government eases some of the pressure around employment and operating costs, like some commentators have been predicting, businesses need to know which investments they would be prepared to accelerate. If those pressures remain broadly where they are, they need to be equally clear on which decisions are still critical.
“That matters particularly for marketing. The CMO brief has already become stretched, with businesses expecting leaders to connect brand, customer, data, technology and commercial performance much more closely than they might have done a few years ago.
“The CMO role won’t fundamentally change after the Budget, but the trade-offs will. One outcome calls for a leader who can accelerate, backing growth, new markets and transformation. The other calls for one who can sharpen, protecting what drives revenue and making every pound work harder. Only the elite CMOs can do both, and boards should know now which kind they have.”
“So the preparation now should not be about trying to guess exactly what will be announced. It should be about knowing how different outcomes would change your priorities, and making sure you have marketing leadership capable of making the right decision in each scenario.”
Hiring confidence and senior appointments
“Businesses have spent much of this year being incredibly disciplined about expansion. The cost of employing someone in the UK has risen by almost 10% over the past year,[2] energy prices have risen, and the wider cost of doing business has made organisations think much harder about where they add headcount and, particularly at senior level, whether an appointment will really move the business forward.
“Boards are asking whether somebody internally can step up, whether an existing leadership role’s scope can stretch even further, or whether an external hire brings a capability the business doesn’t have today. That shift is already visible in the market, with CIPD research showing that 48% of UK employers increased efforts to develop talent internally over the previous year.[3] For leadership teams, the challenge is working out when internal progression is enough and when the business genuinely needs to bring in expertise it does not already have.”
“That makes the Autumn Budget especially important for hiring confidence. If businesses receive meaningful support with the additional costs they’ve been carrying, and the uncertainty they’ve faced, it should give boards the confidence to move ahead with senior appointments to execute the transformation plans that have been put on hold.
“However, if those pressures aren’t addressed, I think we’ll continue to see a hesitant market.
“There’s an increasing premium on dexterity and resourcefulness, and AI is accelerating it. As more of the routine tasks are automated, companies want leaders who can move comfortably between commercial strategy, people, technology and customer experience, and who can run a smaller, more efficient team that makes smart use of tech and specialist expertise. Judgement and the ability to bring people with you through change have never mattered more.
“What will matter after the Autumn Budget is whether businesses feel confident enough to act on the leadership decisions they’ve already been considering.”
Chris Eastwood, CEO and co-founder, Penfold
“Pensions only work if people trust the rules they are saving under. Repeated speculation about tax relief or tax-free cash makes long-term planning harder, even if the eventual Budget leaves the rules unchanged.”
Pension tax relief
“A quiet Budget for tax relief is expected, but I would not rule out a surprise,” added Eastwood. “Tax relief is the top-up the Government adds to your pension. The salary sacrifice cap announced in 2025 showed how much heat even a small pension change creates, but my expectation is that big pension changes are unlikely this time.
“The risk I'd watch is a smaller move. Examples are a trim to the tax-free lump sum or frozen allowances. Even rumours of that kind can change what people do with their pensions.
“Stability is the foundation of retirement saving. Pensions work on a simple promise: people put money away for decades, trusting that the tax rules will broadly hold when they retire. Unexpected changes to those rules, or even rumours of them, make that trust harder to keep.
“The salary sacrifice change is already law. From 6 April 2029, the first £2,000 a year of employee pension contributions made through salary sacrifice will retain the National Insurance exemption. Amounts above that will be subject to employee and employer National Insurance. Importantly, ordinary employer pension contributions remain exempt.”
Employer National Insurance
“Employer National Insurance is unlikely to fall in the Budget. It's 15% on earnings above £5,000 and public finances are tight”, continued Eastwood. “My expectation is no new rise in the rate, though a bigger Employment Allowance, currently £10,500, would help small employers most.
“This matters because it's one pot of money. Higher employment costs can put pressure on benefit budgets, including the amount employers choose to contribute to pensions. I urge the Government to avoid changes that push employers towards the legal minimum.”
Automatic enrolment
“Changes are possible in the current climate, and we could see younger and lower-paid workers being brought into pension savings. But we're unlikely to see changes to the pension thresholds or minimum contributions after the Budget without an official announcement. Many are hoping to see changes following the broader pension review, with its final recommendations due in spring 2027”, Eastwood continued.
“The legal minimum is a starting line, not a finish line. Today it's 8% of qualifying earnings: 3% from the employer and 5% from the employee, including tax relief. When auto-enrolment launched, that was seen as enough - or at least as far as they could push at the time. There is growing evidence that current minimum contribution levels may leave many people short of the retirement income they expect.”
“The next step should be higher minimum contributions. There needs to be a clear path from 8% towards 12%, phased in gradually.”
“Employers need notice and support to get there. Rises should come with firm dates, a gradual timetable and, where possible, help with the extra cost. Small businesses cannot absorb a surprise, but they can plan for a clear roadmap.
“Thresholds are more likely to see a signal than a switch following the Budget. The earnings trigger remains £10,000, the lower qualifying earnings limit £6,240 and the starting age 22. The Pensions Commission's final report is due in Spring 2027. A direction of travel is expected at most, and I back lowering the starting age to 18 and counting every pound people earn. Auto-enrolment got people saving, and now it's time to help them save enough.”
What a good Budget would look like for pensions
“We’re urging the Government to provide certainty for pension savers by confirming that tax relief and tax-free cash are safe for this Parliament. We need a clear timetable, with steps and dates for raising minimum contributions. Also, the Government needs to outline how the Pensions Commission's findings will be used and commit to linking the £2,000 salary sacrifice cap to inflation.
“There also needs to be a focus on making pensions easier to understand. People should be able to see what they have, what they're building towards and where to go for help if they need it. Any changes should also protect younger, lower-paid and part-time workers who rely heavily on automatic enrolment to save for retirement.
“A good Budget for pensions should keep the rules steady, set out a clear path towards higher contributions and give people the confidence to plan for their retirement.”
Luke Hicks, UK Lead, Malt
“The Autumn Budget could deliver a nasty shock to businesses that have lost sight of how much their independent workforce really costs,” said Hicks. “Freelancers are no longer simply plugging gaps. They are delivering some of the most important transformation projects in British business, particularly in AI.”
“The default reaction for many will be to hit pause on contractor hiring. That would be a big mistake. Cutting off access to specialist talent will bring innovation and growth to a dead halt. The issue isn’t the talent – it is that too many organisations are still managing this critical workforce through fragmented procurement processes, inconsistent rates and outdated engagement models.”
“That is a dangerous position to be in when the Chancellor is considering further tax and compliance changes,” he added.
Hicks argues that rather than retreating, businesses must stop confusing a freelancer’s headline day rate with the true cost of engaging their expertise.
“A freelancer charging £700 a day does not necessarily cost the business £700. Once you factor in intermediaries, administration, compliance and the engagement model, the real cost can be very different.”
“Businesses that cannot explain what they are paying, why they are paying it and what value they are getting are leaving themselves dangerously exposed. And if tax changes push freelancers to increase their rates, those hidden procurement inefficiencies will bite even harder.”
Potential changes to off-payroll working rules could add further uncertainty for organisations already struggling to manage complex freelance workforces.
“IR35 cannot be treated as a box-ticking exercise, nor should fear of it lead to blanket contractor bans,” Hicks continued. “Businesses need to know who they are engaging, how they are classified and whether the contractual arrangements reflect the work actually being delivered.”
“Inconsistent decisions across departments, inappropriate engagement models and poor oversight can create unnecessary tax exposure. The Budget could make those weaknesses considerably more expensive.”
“The question is not whether a freelancer falls inside or outside IR35. It is whether the business has chosen the right way to engage that individual in the first place.”
Potential changes to dividend taxation, income tax thresholds and Making Tax Digital requirements could also place further pressure on independent professionals, with knock-on consequences for the businesses that depend on them.
“The irony is that Britain needs independent specialists more than ever, particularly as businesses race to adopt AI. Making that expertise harder to access or managing it poorly risks slowing the very innovation the economy needs,” said Hicks.
“The businesses that will be hit hardest are those that do not know where their freelancers are, what they cost or whether they are being engaged correctly.”
“Procurement leaders and HR leaders need to challenge inconsistent rates, eliminate unnecessary intermediaries, and turn to dedicated Freelance Management Systems to centralise compliance and establish total visibility over spend.”
“Independent talent is not the problem. Poor management of independent talent is. The Autumn Budget may change the rules, but it will not change the fundamentals. Businesses that centralise the cost, compliance and value of their freelance workforce will be better placed to protect their margins and maintain access to the skills they need.”
“Those that continue to operate in the dark could find themselves paying a very heavy price.”
Chris Harrison, Group Finance Director, Lawsons
Chris Harrison said there is a tendency in business to view paying less tax as an achievement, but that this thinking should be challenged.
“Successful businesses benefit from the infrastructure, skills and public services that allow them to operate and grow, and paying the right amount of tax is part of that relationship. That becomes even more important when businesses are benefiting from taxpayer-funded contracts.”
“Companies should be able to demonstrate that they are paying their fair share and contributing back into the UK economy. With the Budget approaching, I think there is a real opportunity to put responsible tax practices higher up the business agenda.”
Charlotte Sallabank, Partner, Katten Muchin Rosenman LLP
“It seems likely that there will be no rise in the rate of CGT and John Healey is standing by Labour’s manifesto commitment not to increase rates of income tax, VAT, employee’s NIC or corporation tax, so it is difficult to see where the Chancellor will turn to boost the government’s coffers.”
“It is widely expected that banks will be a target, with the bank surcharge potentially rising to somewhere between its current rate of 3% and its pre-1 April 2023 rate of 8%. Additionally, a restriction on banks’ ability to use their carried-forward losses suffered during the financial crisis to offset current taxable profits might be introduced.”
“Taking a different approach, the Chancellor might do something novel, such as introducing a new rate of VAT applicable only to a special category of high-end goods and services. This would hit wealthier taxpayers without being a tax on their wealth itself, but could of course harm the providers of such services through reduced sales.”
“Aside from raising money directly via broadening tax bases or increasing rates, we are likely to see strong efforts to close the tax gap between the amount of tax that is theoretically payable and the amount that is collected. HMRC has focused on this for many years without great success in narrowing the gap: the tax gap for 2024–25 has been estimated by HMRC at £59.2 billion, the highest it has ever been in cash terms.”
“We may see greater enforcement and collection powers being introduced, including the proposal to extend current online marketplace VAT rules to sales by UK-based businesses where goods are in the UK at the time of sale. And there may well be more measures to tackle non-compliance and additional anti-avoidance legislation introduced.”
Jasmine Dhillon, Employment Law Partner, Spencer West LLP
“As we look ahead to the Budget, one of the key areas requiring attention is the resourcing of the employment tribunal system. Employers are already preparing for significant workplace reforms, including the reduction of the qualifying period for unfair dismissal and the extension of limitation periods for bringing certain claims.”
“While improving access to justice is an important objective, these changes are likely to result in a substantial increase in tribunal litigation, at a time when the system is already struggling with significant backlogs.”
“Without meaningful investment in tribunal resources, both employees and employers will inevitably face longer waits for their cases to be determined. Delayed hearings undermine access to justice for claimants, whilst prolonged uncertainty creates considerable cost and operational pressures for businesses.”
“The Government should also be mindful of the cumulative impact of employment law reform on recruitment and business confidence. Employers need certainty if they are to invest in growing their workforce, and any measures that reduce the cost and complexity of hiring, encourage skills development and support workforce agility would be welcome.”
“This is particularly important for SMEs, which often lack the internal resources and budgets available to larger organisations. Whilst larger employers may be able to absorb increased compliance obligations and litigation risk, smaller businesses are far more likely to feel the impact, potentially making them more cautious about recruitment.”
“As the Government seeks to drive economic growth, the Budget should strike a fair balance between strengthening employee protections and ensuring businesses remain confident to create jobs, invest and expand.”
