Skills England’s 2026 annual report says graduate online job adverts were 45% lower in 2025 than the year before, while entry-level adverts fell by 25%. The report also cautions that it is too early to attribute this decline specifically to AI.
That is difficult news for graduates, but it also creates a hiring challenge. When vacancies contract and applications rise, employers may become more conservative. Previous experience, familiar employers and polished CVs can start to carry more weight, even though early-career candidates have had fewer opportunities to build that experience.
A tougher market can narrow the talent pool
Experience is useful evidence, but it is not the same as potential. A recent graduate may have limited work history yet still bring strong reasoning, learning agility, motivation and interpersonal skills.
Another candidate may have benefited from better access to internships, professional networks or application coaching without necessarily being better suited to the role.
When recruiters rely too heavily on CVs, they risk rewarding opportunity rather than capability. This can narrow the shortlist and make it harder to identify candidates who could develop quickly once hired.
Build selection around evidence of future performance
A better approach is to define what success in the role requires, then assess those qualities consistently.
For many early-career roles, that may include problem-solving, attention to detail, communication, adaptability and relevant behavioural tendencies. Short, validated assessments can provide comparable evidence early in the funnel, while structured interviews and job-relevant exercises can explore how candidates apply those capabilities.
This does not mean removing human judgement. It means giving hiring teams better information before they exercise it.
Employers reviewing their approach to early-careers hiring should ask whether it genuinely measures potential or merely compares how much experience candidates have already accumulated.
Do not confuse scarcity with quality
When jobs are scarce, a large applicant pool can make it tempting to raise arbitrary requirements. Adding another year of experience or insisting on a particular degree may reduce numbers, but it does not necessarily improve the shortlist. You can actually turn large applicant volumes to your advantage by utilising scalable selection methods.
A tighter graduate market should encourage more precise selection, not narrower thinking. Employers that measure potential consistently can make stronger decisions while giving capable candidates a fairer opportunity to demonstrate what they could contribute.
