Manpower Employment Outlook Survey - Hiring confidence among US employers will continue for 2005

Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Shows that Hiring Confidence Among U.S. Employers will Continue for Remainder of 2005

U.S. employers are unwavering in their hiring confidence for the fourth quarter of 2005, according to the seasonally adjusted results of the latest Manpower Employment Outlook Survey, conducted quarterly by Manpower Inc. For seven straight quarters, the job picture in the U.S. has been virtually unchanged.

ìBusinesses are looking back at the economic woes they weathered in recent years and are seeing that those struggles were not entirely in vain because of what they learned from them. Hiring has emerged as one of the top lessons, evidenced by the fact that employers have achieved an unprecedented level of precision in managing their workforce. That is why we continue to see such a high degree of consistency in our survey results,î said Jeffrey A. Joerres, Chairman & CEO of Manpower Inc.

Of the 16,000 employers that were surveyed, 29% expect to add to their payrolls during the fourth quarter, while 8% plan to reduce staff levels. In addition, 57% of the employers polled report no change in hiring intentions, and 6% are unsure of their staffing plans. The adjusted Net Employment Outlook for the October to December period is 20%, which is similar to the third quarter and identical to survey findings a year ago.

Employers in the majority of the 10 industry sectors surveyed plan to keep year-end hiring steady with the previous quarter. Those sectors include Durable and Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing, Wholesale/Retail Trade, Services and Public Administration. Wholesale/Retail Trade employers are not as optimistic entering the 2005 holiday season as they were last quarter or a year ago, while those in the Services sector expect a slight improvement in hiring conditions from third quarter and last year at this time.

Please note that fourth quarter survey data was collected prior to Hurricane Katrina. Manpower is prepared to discuss how the hurricane has thus far changed the employment landscape in the areas where we do business and how we have responded to those changes in our job placement and recruitment efforts.

ìHiring plans among Durable and Non-Durable Goods Manufacturers have slowly trended downward since the beginning of the year, but those job prospects are looking up for the fourth quarter,î said Joerres. ìFourth quarter hiring expectations in the Mining sector are stronger than they have been since the early 1980s, which could present a labor challenge for the industry if there is validity to the recent concerns over a skills shortage among miners.î

Hiring patterns in the four U.S. regions are varied. Employers in the Northeast and Midwest are more optimistic about adding to their payrolls than they were in the third quarter. Little change in hiring is expected in the West, while employers in the South plan to hire at a more conservative pace in the coming quarter. Compared with the final months of 2004, hiring plans in the South and West are relatively unchanged. Employers in the Northeast predict a slight year-over-year improvement in job prospects, while those in the Midwest are not as confident about hiring as they were a year ago.

The job forecast for the fourth quarter of 2005 is strongest in the West. For the second consecutive quarter, the employment outlook is weakest in the Midwest.

In addition to the United States, the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted in 22 other countries and territories. The quarterly report from Manpower Inc. is the most extensive, forward-looking employment survey in the world, gathering data from more than 45,000 employers across the globe each quarter.

The majority of employers in 20 of the 23 countries and territories surveyed expect to add staff during the fourth quarter of 2005. However, the outlook is decidedly less optimistic across the globe than it was three months ago. German employers reversed their positive third quarter hiring expectations with a negative outlook for the final quarter. Meanwhile, employers in India are again reporting the most optimistic expectations in the survey. Employers in the U.S., Canada and New Zealand expect strong, stable hiring activity to continue for the remainder of the year.

A quarterly comparison of adjusted data shows softer hiring activity can be expected in 13 of 23 countries from October through December. Compared to fourth quarter of 2004, labor markets are expected to improve in only eight of 23 countries. Employers in five countries reported identical hiring outlooks compared to last year at this time.

ìIn Germany, employersí newfound optimism of last quarter has faded and the employment picture is now similar to one year ago,î said Joerres. ìThe impending election has most likely created uncertainty and a reluctance to hire among businesses, which is typical in a run-up to a major election. One thing is for certain, regardless of who is elected, further labor market reform will be required to fuel Germanyís future job creation. In contrast, the Indian labor market continues to be red hot, with continued robust hiring in the Services sector.î

The next Manpower Employment Outlook Survey will be released on December 13, 2005 to report hiring expectations for the first quarter of 2006.