Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Q3 2005

UK employers look set to continue hiring over the next three months, according to the latest Manpower Employment Outlook Survey. Optimism is led by the Finance & Business Services sector as well as from employers in the Construction sector. At the same time, the Hotel & Retail sectors are notably more cautious about their hiring intentions.



The survey results, released today, show that employers in the Finance & Business Services sector are reporting their highest Q3 jobs confidence since 1998 with a Net Employment Outlook of 21%. This continues the strong performance of this sector in recent periods and corrects the dip last quarter when the Outlook fell by ten percentage points.

Employers in the Construction sector are also positive about their hiring plans with 20% planning to add to their workforce. This represents an increase of four percentage points over the last year.

Employers in the Hotel & Retail sector, whilst still reporting a positive Outlook, are notably more restrained with an Outlook of 3%, representing a decrease of seven percentage points over the year. Closer examination of the data shows caution on the high street, with retailers reporting an Outlook of -6% - a year-on-year decrease of 13 percentage points.

Mark Cahill, managing director at Manpower, says: The UK employment market has been well known for its resilience and stability and this picture looks set to continue. The strong results from the finance and business sector are good for the UK as they are often indicators of wider business confidence.

The much-reported troubles on the high street are reflected in more cautious hiring intentions from retailers, as consumers tighten their belts and rein in spending. This is the first time in recent history weíve seen such a fall in confidence from the high street, but it is too early to say whether this is a short-term blip or a more longer-term dip.

The Outlook away from the high street remains positive. The UK benefits from its flexible labour market and this, combined with a stable economy, is a sound basis for business: good for employers and good for job seekers.

The report shows that employers are reporting a Net Employment Outlook of 12% for the three months to September. When seasonal variations are removed from the data, the Outlook is also 12%.

The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is the worldís most extensive, forward-looking employment survey. The survey has been running in the UK for 39 years and measures employer hiring intentions for the quarter
ahead: July to September 2005. 2,100 employers in the UK were surveyed, and over 45,000 employers in 23 countries and territories globally.

The resilience of the UK employment market is reinforced by figures from the West Midlands where, in spite of the closure of MG Rover, the employment outlook remains positive. Comments Cahill: The number of employers looking to increase their recruitment in the West Midlands has increased by nine percentage points over the same time last year, which could be strongly supported by the areaís diverse industry base.

Across the UK, eight of the nine industry sectors surveyed by Manpower are planning to take on staff next quarter. Employers in Finance and Business Services at 21% (up five percentage points year on year); Construction at 20% (up four percentage points year on year); Transport at 15% (down six percentage points year on year), all reported figures above the national average. Employers in the Agriculture sector are the only ones to expect cutbacks, with a Net Employment Outlook of -1% - a decline of two percentage points over the last year.

Employers in all twelve regions surveyed intend to take on more staff in the quarter ahead. Scotland is the most optimistic region, with 30% of employers looking to expand their workforce - an increase of 15 percentage points over the year and one percentage point over the last quarter. Conversely, in the North West, East Anglia, South East, Yorkshire & Humberside employers are the least optimistic reporting Net Employment Outlooks below the national average.

Of the 12 European countries surveyed, employers in all but Switzerland (0%) are reporting positive hiring intentions. The strongest hiring intentions in Europe are reported in Ireland ( 20%), Norway ( 17%) and UK ( 12%), while hiring is expected to be less robust in Italy ( 3%), the Netherlands ( 3%), France ( 4%) and Germany ( 4%). Of particular note is that employers in Germany are reporting their first positive Net Employment Outlook since the survey began in Germany in 2003.

Looking at the results from a global level, 22 of the 23 countries and territories surveyed by Manpower anticipate positive Net Employment Outlooks for the three months ahead. Employers in India ( 34%), Taiwan ( 24%) and New Zealand ( 23%) report the most buoyant forecasts. Employers in nine of the countries expect more hiring compared to this time last year, based on seasonally adjusted data.