UK investment bankers the most bearish for 2008 but bonus expectations still run high

Forget the gloom on Wall Street: globally, Londonís investment bankers are the most convinced that business is on a downwards curve. A survey of 20,270 global financial services employees by eFinancialCareers.com, the global financial services careers website, reveals that 40.8% of bankers in London expect 2008 to be worse for business than 2007. By comparison, only 31.8% of US bankers predict a deterioration next year.

The most optimistic banking types are located in the Gulf, where a mere 12.3% expect a downturn in 2008 and 69.3% are confident that next year will be better than this one. Hong Kong and Singapore-based bankers are also relatively upbeat, with 40.5% and 41.6% respectively forecasting a better 2008.

Sarah Butcher, editor of eFinancialCareers.com, commented:

ìThe relative despondency of UK bankers perhaps should come as no surprise given the recent events and the report last week that the NYSE and Nasdaq are set to raise more money via IPOs than the London Stock Exchange and AIM for the first time in three years.î

However, London bankersí gloom should not be overdone.

Despite the recent redundancies and huge write downs announced by the banks, the poll by eFinancialCareers.com shows financial services employees in the City remaining surprisingly upbeat about their potential bonuses for the year ñ 45.6% predicting higher payouts this year than the bumper awards of 2006 and only 18.5% are expecting something lower. Furthermore, nearly a quarter of respondents believe their bonuses will rise by more than 50%.

And globally, bonus expectations remain buoyant for next year with only 40% of US respondents, 33% of Asia and Australian respondents, and 22% of Middle East respondents believing their bonuses will fall next year. Only in the UK were the pessimistics in the majority, 51% believing bonus levels will be down next year.

Globally eFinancialCareers.comís poll revealed equity capital markets and M&A bankers as the most optimistic of the optimists when it comes to predicting this yearís bonuses. Unsurprisingly, debt capital markets and credit focused bankers are the most pessimistic (although 45.2% still anticipate an increase even here).