Jobs blow to women as economic slowdown hits consumer services

Labour market figures, published today by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), show that conditions in the UK jobs market weakened further in the winter months, particularly for women jobseekers. This highlights the degree to which the effects of last yearís economic slowdown spread beyond manufacturing to hit consumer services sectors, says CIPD Chief Economist Dr John Philpott.

Labour market cools
Dr Philpott comments, ìA fall in employment, a further rise in unemployment and an increase in the number of economically inactive people who want to work, points to an easing in the demand for labour. There is a glimmer of hope in that job vacancies seem to be recovering. However, it appears from todayís figures that employers have been making greater use of self-employed and temporary staff rather than permanent employees in recent months, which may suggest considerable uncertainty about economic prospects.î

Women hit worst
ìAlthough the male dominated manufacturing sector continues to shed jobs, women have been the main casualties of the recent labour market slowdown. The number of women in work has fallen as the consumer slowdown has adversely affected employment in key consumer services sectors, notably the distribution and hotel and restaurant sectors which joined manufacturing in shedding substantial numbers of jobs last year. The impact of this is seen not only in the unemployment figures (a large rise in the number of unemployed women easily offsetting a small fall in the number of unemployed men) but also in a rise in the number of people who are economically inactive because they are looking after family or home, which for many jobless women is shorthand for not being able to find work.î

Older workers buck the trend
ìOlder workers get more good news from todayís figures. The fall in employment is confined to the under-50s. Britainís grey workforce continues to expand, with the number of economically active people describing themselves as retired also starting to fall. What remains unclear is the degree to which this is driven by changing employer attitudes to older workers as opposed to the need for older workers to find jobs to cover shrinking pension incomes. Moreover, with fewer employment opportunities of late in the kinds of consumer services sectors that tend to employ older workers in the greatest numbers, it may be that older workers are having to choose the self-employment route back to work.î

Unemployment and welfare to work
ìTodayís unemployment figures on both the Labour Force Survey (LFS) and claimant count will greatly disappoint ministers. Taking into account those people not actively seeking jobs who say that they want to work, the UKís underlying level of joblessness is continuing to rise and is now approaching 3.6 million.

ìEqually worrying is a rise in the number of claimants in each of the key New Deal target groups. This suggests that the welfare to work task is getting harder at precisely the same time as the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) welfare to work budget is set to feel the pinch. Aside from this, the rise in claimant unemployment in 2005 remains a puzzle. Although the economic slowdown has obviously been one factor, the DWP insists, on the basis of rigorous statistical analysis, that the increased supply of migrant workers from Eastern Europe has had no adverse impact on the job prospects of unemployed claimants. This may be so. But ministers have yet to offer a fully convincing account of why so many British jobseekers remain stuck on benefit when employers seem happy to hire migrants in ever greater numbers.î