Figures Make Workforce Planning in China Difficult

By Frank Mulligan, Talent Software

The United States Congress is currently discussing the issue of how many graduates will be needed to continue generation of strong economic growth in the future. Competition is seen from India and China, where the raw number of graduates is greater.

The discussions tell us a lot about what kind of shortages we can expect in China in the future. Specifically, submissions made a recent House Committee suggest that:

The numbers provided by the Ministry of Education for graduates in China may be overestimated. The numbers for engineering graduates, for example, include many 2-3 year programs which are equivalent to diploma level. These graduates should really be included in a separate section for technicians.

The quality of graduates in China was questioned and the final conclusion was that China’s weak infrastructure and high teacher student ratio resulted in a graduate pool with little of the depth of their US counterparts. This fits in with previous work done by McKinsey who also questioned the quality of China’s graduates.

There was a distinction made between between dynamic engineers, who are capable of abstract thinking and high-level problem-solving, and transactional engineers, who are only responsible for rote and repetitive tasks. The suggestion was that China produces more of the latter, and not enough of the former. It was not actually stated but the obvious suggestion is that Chinese universities focus too much on theory, and memorization of facts.

Clearly there are huge implications for HR Managers who are trying to develop a plan for the development of their workforce over the next 5-10 years. If the figures that form the basis of this planning cannot be relied upon, and the general quality of the graduates is suspect, no real conclusions can be made about future hiring pool.

This is not a strong basis for making investments in China. It also suggests that the skills shortage will continue for some time to come.

Comments to: frank.mulligan@recruit-china.com