Europe faces ageing population crisis

ëFertility rates have fallen below the replacement rate in every European countryí

Europe will ultimately need the immigration that is causing much concern. If current trends continue, the continent will face a major demographic crisis due to its progressively ageing population over the coming decades.

Decision makers at all levels, as well as the media and the public, really do need to fully comprehend the current situation if the EU is going to be able to accommodate these fundamental demographic changes, and plan for the consequences. The European Spatial Planning Observation Network (ESPON) is responsible for producing and analysing indicators on various topics, such as demographic trends, which influence territorial development at all levels in the EU: Europe-wide, national, regional and local.

ESPON has completed an applied research project to analyse the current demographic trends across the continent, and how they may change in the future, looking at three important factors: (1) fertility rates, (2) age structure and (3) migration, each of which show different patterns.

While it is true that higher fertility rates exist in rural communities in comparison with urban, one thing is consistent at the national level: fertility rates have fallen below the replacement rate in every European country. Although many urban areas and some attractive rural places will still experience demographic growth, also through positive migration processes, it is likely that all other regions will see a decline.

A low fertility rate, together with longer life expectancy, combines to directly influence the age structure of a given society. This increasing predominance of elderly citizens is particularly pronounced in southern Europe where ageing and low fertility strongly reinforce one another.

The final aspect considered is migration. Examples show that despite having low fertility rates and a disproportionate age structure, these two problems can largely be overcome by carefully planned migration policies. Countries like Ireland and Greece, which had traditionally been known as countries of emigration, have recently reversed this trend to turn into destination countries for immigrants. Poland and other new member states of the EU show a stronger trend in the opposite direction, with a large proportion of their people emigrating to western Europe. This trend in combination with low birth rates could prove to be a major stumbling block for the eastern economies in 20 to 30 years.

In promoting territorial cohesion within the European Union, it will be important to address the demographics of all regions across Europe. While it is easiest to keep high population numbers in urban centres and areas of high affluence, it remains for policy makers to consider immigrants to parts of countries that are facing a demographic deficit.