Election Doesn't Slow Record Job Demand

The Olivier Internet Job Index rose 4.31% in October, achieving growth of 50.07% in the year, and creating yet another record level of Australian job ads on the net.

The jobs growth continued almost unabated despite the federal election and the increasing expectation of another interest rate rise. Once politics drove employment prospects, now Australia's record employment rate is one of the driving forces in this election, says Robert Olivier, director of the Olivier Group.

The almost saturated jobs market, the skills shortage, and wage pressure on inflation are all key elements driving the economy, and shaping the decisions that the next government will have to make. ìElections usually contribute to uncertainty in the job market. In the final week of October we tracked a drop of about 4000 jobs in almost 400,000 job ads ñ a fallback of less than one percent. Despite that the average monthly growth in October was 4.31%î says Robert Olivier.

The big spending policies of both sides may aggravate inflation but they'll also strengthen employment. The workchoices debate isn't that important ñ employers aren't worried about sacking workers, they're concerned about how they can find them, Robert Olivier suggests.

The most immediate employment issue facing whoever wins power will be the changes to the 457 visa system recently instated by the Immigration Department. Australia's capacity to produce is the key issue facing us, says Robert Olivier. Our figures show that Engineering and Mining job ads grew by 11.65% in October. We attribute that to the Department of Immigration closing off recruiters sourcing people overseas. It's tougher to bring in overseas
workers.ì

While it is widely believed the Reserve Bank will bring on another interest rate rise this week, it hasn't slowed job demand. ìWe've observed the employment market responding to five rate rises since the last election. Even two rate rises in close succession failed to contain the economy. Mortgages might go up, but the demand for workers is strong, and the demand means wages will rise.

In October, 20 of the 21 sectors surveyed by the Olivier Internet Job Index grew. Advertising and Media jobs grew 10.48% in the month. ìThe growth in online advertising is pushing demand for people in new media sales. The Hospitality and Tourism sector doesn't seem to be suffering from the high Australian dollar. Job ads were up 6.49% in the month, anticipating the summer high season.

IT&T grew 2.29% in October while Multimedia Internet and Graphics seems to be coming off the boil with 5.04% growth in the month. In the Building and Construction industry job ads grew just 1.87% in the month. îThere's been 93.97% growth in the year, but the trend is easing sharply,î says Robert Olivier. Only the small and volatile Arts and Entertainment sector dropped (by 2.58%).

Casual jobs were most available this month with an increase of 6% while full time jobs were up 3% in the month, part time jobs were up 1% and contract and temporary jobs fell 2% Nationally Queensland has been the big winner in the past month, with an increase of around 6,000 new job ads. ìIt's quite broad growth, but the stand out is Trades and Services jobs which contributed about a third of the growth.î

As the university year ends employment activity has intensified, with graduate job ads up 42.63% over the year. Education job ads for uni leavers have almost doubled in 12 months ñ up 191%. Property, Building and Construction job ads are up 84.62% and Advertising and Media jobs have risen 62.6% in 12 months.

Robert Olivier is a Director of Olivier Group. The Olivier Internet Job Index surveyed 389,936 Positions Vacant ads on commercial job sites in October and analysed them by state and industry sector. Robert Olivier is available for interview, and the microeconomic data including graphs of the industry sectors surveyed in the Olivier Internet Job Index will be available on Monday November 5 on www.olivier.com.au Unless otherwise noted, all IJI figures quoted are seasonally adjusted, based on ABS advice.