UK jobs confidence upbeat to end of year

- Finance & Business Services sector leads national hiring plans
- Easing consumer confidence hits Hotels & Retail sector
- Manufacturing job prospects ease this quarter despite continued output growth
- UK Net Employment Outlook 13%

Strong demand for staff in the Finance & Business Services sector will continue to drive UK employer hiring intentions to the end of the year according to Manpower, the UKís leading workforce management company. The anticipated hiring activity across the UK represents the strongest national fourth quarter figures since 2004, although confidence has eased slightly compared to this summer.

The figures released today in Manpowerís Employment Outlook Survey, a quarterly study of UK hiring trends covering the period October-December 2007, reveal a very stable labour market which is broadly in line with the national average for the last eleven quarters: 18 per cent of employers plan to take on more staff, five per cent intend to make headcount reductions and 75 per cent expect to make no changes to staffing levels, giving a Net Employment Outlook of 13%. When seasonal variations are removed from the data, the Outlook is 12%.

Mark Cahill, Managing Director of Manpower UK, says: ìThe labour market remains robust and stable: employers in eight of the nine industry sectors surveyed plan to take on more staff this quarter and nearly one in five businesses will be recruiting more employees by the end of the year. However, many employers continue to struggle to find the right staff and so having the right retention and recruitment strategies in place has never been more important.î

Manpowerís survey of 2,100 employers across the UK reveals that employers in the Finance & Business Services sector are the most optimistic about their hiring plans with 26 per cent looking to expand their workforce and just three per cent planning to reduce their payroll. This gives an Outlook of 23% representing a slight increase of two percentage points on last quarter and is the same level as last year. Confidence is being driven in particular by employers in the Business Services sub-sector where 26 per cent of employers expect to grow their workforce and only three per cent plan to make cut backs. Employers in the Finance sub-sector are more restrained in their recruitment, reporting an Outlook of 10%.

Hiring confidence is also robust among employers in the Transport & Communications and Mining sectors. While recent reports indicate continued strong output growth within the Manufacturing sector, this is not reflected in this report with employers anticipating an Outlook down by four percentage points over the quarter to 10% and matching the Q4 Outlook last year.

Agriculture, Hotels & Retail and Utilities sector employers report results notably below the national average. Employers in the High Street sub-sector will ease off their recruitment plans by five percentage points to 4% over the last quarter but are slightly more positive (two percentage points) on last year. Hotels & Restaurant sub-sector employers intend to scale back their hiring plans significantly this quarter but will be slightly ahead of the same point last year with a Net Employment Outlook of 7%.

Continues Cahill: ìConsumer spending has decreased as increases in interest rates and concerns about inflation have employers thinking twice. We are now seeing this translating into more cautious hiring intentions on the High Street. We are also seeing a rebalance of recruitment in the Hotels & Retail sector following predictions of strong hiring this summer, perhaps not surprising given the wet weather much of the country has recently faced.

ìThe good news is that there is no shortage of staff within the industry sectors surveyed, with low vacancy rates largely thanks to employers benefiting from increased migrant labour. Weakening consumer confidence does not seem to have affected hiring plans in other business sectors. We will need to see what impact this may have over the coming months.î

Around the country, employers in 11 of the 12 regions surveyed predict a positive hiring climate for the October to December 2007 period ñ the exception being Scottish employers who anticipate their weakest Outlook since Quarter 4 2002, at -1%. Employers in the West Midlands and Yorkshire & Humberside are the most confident, recording both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter increases, reporting Net Employment Outlooks of 27% and 22% respectively. Conversely, employers in the North East, the North West and Northern Ireland all report Outlooks weaker both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year. Employers in London are notably more upbeat about their hiring plans following two periods of muted growth. The Outlook of 17% is the strongest anticipated hiring level for the region this year.

Across the countries surveyed in the Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) region, job prospects have weakened from three months ago but the majority have improved compared to the same period last year. Employers in Germany, Norway, Spain and Sweden are the most optimistic about taking on more workers. Employers in Sweden are reporting their most upbeat Outlook since the survey was established in this country, while the German Outlook is identical to last quarterís positive forecast, which was the countryís most optimistic survey result to date.