“There are no surprises in today’s data for readers of the business surveys. It remains a challenging market for employers who are still waiting for a real upturn in economic confidence. Our own survey of employers’ sentiment suggests employers are feeling better about themselves but are lurking in the shadows of the labour market waiting for better news on the wider economy before they come out into the light.
“Pay is doing nothing to spook the Bank of England interest rates setters, but the gap between pay set by the labour market in the private sector and those areas where the government is setting pay seems unsustainable. This is a function of government ramping public sector awards and the Minimum Wage at the same time as taxing away pay rises in the private sector through its National Insurance raid.
“Progress on economic inactivity has stalled, which shows the pressure on government initiatives to get people back to work and the need to boost private sector hiring. A Budget for business next month - rather than one that holds firms back - is essential. That means avoiding unaffordable tax rises, taking a pragmatic approach to making necessary changes to the Employment Rights Bill, supporting flexible work, and improving public sector recruitment by tackling the higher costs the anti-agency drive in the NHS is driving into the system.”
Neil Carberry added:
"It's clear that the data produced by ONS continue to diverge on key estimates like employment. This is far from ideal, but the answer is to challenge the RTI data as well as the LFS. We remain unconvinced that the RTI data, drawn on tax data, is a fully effective measure of employment."
