Home Office figures published earlier today indicate that the rate of inflow of central and eastern Europeans to the UK workforce has started to fall during the course of this year. This suggests that the major impact of the surge of immigration triggered by EU Enlargement in 2004 has now been felt, according to John Philpott, Chief Economist at the Chartered Institute for Personnel and Development.
He said ìThe number of Central and Eastern Europeans applying to register for work in the UK in the third quarter of 2006 was 2.8% lower than in the equivalent quarter in 2005, following a fall of 1.7% in the year to the second quarter and compared with a 12% increase in the year to the first quarter.
ìThis apparent change in trend might be explained by the fact that the most eager migrants from countries that joined the EU in 2004 have by now probably tried their hand in the UK jobs market, a somewhat improved economic and employment situation in other parts of Europe, and an easing of restrictions to entry to migrants from these countries that were initially imposed by most other EU member states.
ìEven though applications to the Worker Registration Scheme provide a far from precise measure of how many central and eastern Europeans are at present working in the UK, the scheme is likely to act as a reasonable barometer of the trend of migrants and the tide looks to have turned. A more subdued flow of central and eastern European migrants could spell bad news for some employers but will be welcomed by hard pressed local authorities coping with the impact of high immigration on social infrastructure. And it will make even trickier Government and Bank of England estimates of how fast the economy can grow over the long-term without triggering higher inflationî
Sign of turn in tide of migrant workers from eastern Europe
Home Office figures published earlier today indicate that the rate of inflow of central and eastern Europeans to the UK workforce has started to fall during the course of this year
