The latest official labour market statistics, published earlier today by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), show that the UK jobs market was performing remarkably well in the final quarter of 2007. But says John Philpott, Chief Economist at the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD), a number of conundrums surround the ONS figures.
The buoyant jobs marked conundrum
Dr Philpott commented: ìIf it werenít for the fact that most economists are forecasting an economic slowdown this year, todayís jobs figures would be a cause for celebration: another big rise in employment, falling unemployment, and pay pressure posing no great threat to price inflation. What is surprising is that the ONS figures show no sign whatsoever of the softening in demand for staff identified by various recent independent employer surveys, including the CIPD/KPMG Labour Market Outlook survey published early this week. The apparent conundrum might be explained by the normal lag between turning points in economic activity and the eventual labour market fall out. But it might also indicate that the jobs outlook isnít so bleak after all. Letís hope for the best ñ but donít be too surprised if things soon start to take a turn for the worse.î
The older workers/migrant workers conundrum
ìTaken at face value the ONS figures suggest that most new jobs at present are going to people aged 50 and over ñ this age cohort accounts for almost 6 in 10 of the additional people in work last year. But this sits oddly with the observation that most new jobs are being taken by migrant workers ñ a group overwhelmingly aged under 40.
ìThe CIPD reckons this conundrum is explained by the fact that migrant workers are taking the lionís share of new job vacancies while older workers are instead better able than in the past to hold onto their jobs. In jargon terms, over 50s employment is rising because of increased job retention not increased hiring of older workers. What this also highlights is that home grown workers, not just those from overseas, have benefited from the jobs boom of recent years. It remains to be seen which groups will fare best when the jobs market next enters tougher times.î
Puzzling jobs figures show over fifties account for majority of rise in employment
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