Comment on today's labour market statistics

Commenting on todayís labour market statistics, Ian Brinkley, associate director at The Work Foundation, said:

ëUnemployment as defined by the International Labour Organisation (ILO) increased by 140,000 to just over 1.8 million or 5.8 per cent of the workforce comparing the three months to September with the previous three months. We expect this increase to be sustained and reach 2.5 million towards the end of next year.

ëUnemployment is also measured by the number of people claiming unemployment related benefits. This is significantly lower – at 980,000 –because many people who are actively looking for work do not register for benefits.

ëHowever, in recessions the number of people claiming benefits increases rapidly because job losses are disproportionately concentrated amongst full time male manual workers who are most likely to make a claim. We expect the claimant count measure to increase even faster than ILO unemployment and the gap between the two measures will narrow. This will place a significant additional pressure on the employment services.

ëSo far the fall out from the recession on the jobs markets is similar to that of the previous downturn. Nearly 80 per cent of the fall in jobs has been for men and all of the jobs lost have been full time. There has however been no increase in temporary employment.

ëThe Government needs to use the forthcoming Pre Budget Report to announce a substantial package of quick-acting fiscal, labour market, and benefit measures to cope with the temporary return of mass unemployment. The Work Foundation will be publishing more detailed proposals in the near future.í