CIPD - Latest official unemployment figures

Latest official unemployment figures fall just short of 2 million but quarterly leap in redundancies signals 3 million jobless on the way

Official labour market figures published earlier today by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) surprisingly show that UK unemployment didnít top the 2 million mark at the end of 2008. But says John Philpott, Chief Economist at the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD) this apparently positive news is tempered by official confirmation of a big increase in redundancies, which will in due course feed through into the jobless count.

Dr Philpott comments as follows:

ìIt was widely expected that todayís official figures would have shown there were more than 2 million people unemployed at the end of 2008. It is likely that the published quarterly statistics were still affected by the inclusion of data from the early autumn before the second wave of the credit crunch started to have a big impact on employers recruitment and redundancy plans.

ìPerhaps even more surprising is that the latest figures on the number of people claiming Jobseekers Allowance increased by a less than expected 73,880 in January, with little monthly change in the number flowing on to the count but an increase in the number flowing off the count. This is especially puzzling when set against a sharp quarterly rise in redundancies and a further fall in the number of vacancies.

Horrendous rise in redundancies

ìThe final quarter redundancies figure of 259,000 is fairly horrendous and suggests that the CIPD forecast of 300,000 redundancies in the first quarter of 2009 will, if anything, turn out to be an underestimate. The normal lag between redundancies being made and people joining the unemployment count also indicates that, whatever comfort might be taken from todayís jobless figures, unemployment remains on course to rise above 3 million before the economy recovers.

Men being harder hit than women

Commenting on widespread reports that women are being hit harder than men by the current downturn, Dr Philpott added:

ìThere is nothing in these figures to indicate that women are faring less well than men in the economic downturn. More men than women have lost jobs, male unemployment has risen faster than female unemployment, and the redundancy rate has almost doubled for men while having increased by a quarter for women. On current figures if there is a gender bias in this downturn it is firmly against men rather than women.î