While that’s a bit overcooked, luck does play some role in candidate selection. Roulette might seem the obvious analogy, but it’s actually a game of online poker that best mirrors the recruitment process. Learning how to play poker effectively can teach you a lot about reading candidates and making the ultimate decision.
The Four Streets of Hiring: How Candidates Reveal Their Hand
Taking the poker analogy on board, think of the recruitment process as a poker hand played across four streets, where each stage gives you more information about the candidate and how they might fit the role:
- Pre-flop: The first glance. Does the candidate have a premium pair (perfect for the role) or a suited connector (someone with potential but needing development)?
- Flop: Reviewing experience in more detail: patterns, achievements, and career trajectory.
- Turn: The interview, where you see how the candidate plays under pressure and how their skills translate in conversation.
- River: Reference checks and the final decision, confirming whether the candidate is truly the hand you want to call.
Let’s take it one by one.
Pre-flop: Determining the Starting Hand
The recruiting process starts with evaluating the initial deal. In Texas hold’em, your first decision is made upon receiving the hole cards, just as looking at a CV is the start of the recruitment process. That first glance — the so-called pre-flop — tells you whether the candidate is worth it or better left on the table.
For example, one candidate’s CV may look like a suited connector, full of unconventional background skills that offer some promise. Many recruiters would have folded immediately. But sometimes the hole cards are deceptive, and you'd better leave to see how they play across the streets.
Quick tip: flashy formatting doesn’t make a hand stronger. A resume’s real value comes from how the experience actually fits the job you’re hiring for. Look past the bells and whistles, as that’s where the real tells are.
Flop: Reading the Tells in a Resume
Which brings us to tells. In poker, a tell is a subtle hint of a player’s strength. In a pile of applications, tells might be gaps, sudden career pivots, or patterns of rapid promotions signaling high-velocity talent.
A candidate who changes jobs every six months could be a fast mover. Or just someone who doesn’t tend to stick around and moves on the first chance they get. Conversely, someone who’s stayed in a single role for a decade could be loyal, or, at the same time, may lack ambition and are resistant to change.
The strongest tell, though, is achievements. “Managed a team” is vague enough, but “Led a team of 12, increasing productivity by 20% in six months” tells you someone knows how to deliver results. Or present them, at least. Either way, think of these tells as small clues that help you anticipate how the candidate will play later streets.
Turn: Seeing the Candidate in Action
By this stage, you’ve reviewed the CV, spotted the tells, and formed an educated impression, but you still don’t know the full strength of the hand. The interview (or "turn", to extend the analogy) reveals soft skills. That's your managing the unfamiliar situation, problem-solving ability, and how the candidate handles pressure.
Here’s where you watch for “in-play tells”:
- Do they articulate their achievements clearly?
- Can they adapt when you throw them a curveball?
- Do they fit the team culture without forcing themselves to be someone they’re not?
At this stage, poker HR strategy is at its peak. You’re not only judging experience or how they handled the situation, but you’re also evaluating instincts, thought process, and situational intelligence needed to thrive. And, like poker, sometimes a candidate who looks weak on paper surprises you here, while a resume star may falter under even the smallest of pressure. Not to mention the "Karen" candidates, who typically shine on paper.
River: Making the Final Call
In poker-speak, the river is the final street. That's you checking the references and making the ultimate hiring decision. References either confirm or challenge your reads, but whatever you do, don’t ignore red flags here. Recruiters tend to fold under the good interview impression, but a great interview doesn’t erase a questionable reference. Vice versa is also true; strong references can validate a candidate you were initially unsure about.
Also, remember the cost of a bad call. In poker, a failed bet costs chips; in recruitment, a bad hire costs money, time, and team morale. No pressure, though.
Managing Your Chips: The Discipline of Folding
One of the hardest skills in poker (and recruitment) is knowing when to fold. After hours of reviewing resumes, scheduling interviews, and maybe even mentally cheering on a promising candidate, the temptation to push forward and gloss over some shortcomings may take over. Poker calls it “tilt.” Recruiting calls it a potential hiring disaster.
Sometimes the smartest move is to walk away early. A disciplined fold prevents you from making a costly hire simply because you’ve already invested effort. It also allows you to focus on the candidates who truly fit the role. Time spent chasing the wrong hand is time lost on a winner.
Conclusion: Play the Hand, Not the Hunch
Recruitment is a gamble, and according to McKinsey & Company's HR Monitor 2025, offer acceptance numbers in today's market are very low. That's both down to recruiters and candidates. On the former's part, having a smart strategy can limit mistakes to an absolute minimum. Candidates can be seen as poker hands, and your job is to read them, spot the tells, manage your chips, and make smart calls at the end of the day.
Next time you sit down with a stack of resumes, don't despair or discard half of them, but channel your inner poker pro to evaluate the starting hand, read the tells, watch the turn, respect the river, and know when to fold. Sometimes the best hire is the one you didn’t expect to find.
And if nothing else, imagining the office as a friendly poker table makes the process a lot more fun. And that also counts for something.