Sydney, Sunday January 29, 2004. The Olivier Internet Job Index rose 25.30% (seasonally adjusted) in February, exceeding our predictions last month. More significantly, the Index is now 5.87% higher than it was in November, catching up after the traditional volatility of December and January.
The Olivier Internet Job Index, with 114,279 jobs counted in February, is now well above the high of 2003, and is the best since April 2001. The Olivier Internet Job Index averaged 33,920 more jobs in February than it did in January.
ìIn the absence of another interest rate rise, our optimism from last month has been more than justified,î says Robert Olivier, a Director of the Olivier Group.ìWe’ve seen the positive news from recent business confidence surveys but this is the first proof that hiring intentions are being carried out.
ìThe actual number of job ads has astounded us. Recruitment is an industry that leads the economic cycle. The optimism is palpable. These figures confirm itî Robert Olivier says.
ìThis is good news for the government and the RBA ñ it gives them both a comfort zone to work with. It is interesting to contrast the strong Australian job market with the US where employment is President Bush’s archilles heel,î Robert Olivier said.
The RBA’s rate rises have had their effect on home buyers. Building and construction job ads have eased off by 6.10% over 3 months, as the rate rises have bitten into the new housing market.
The big winner over the last three months was the banking and financial services sector.
After three years of pain, IT&T rose 21.93% in the three months, possibly allaying fears of jobs being exported.
Other strong performers in the three month period include Accounting, Administration and Support, and Healthcare
A positive signal for educated young Australians is the growth of job ads in the graduate market. After a very flat 2003, graduate ads are nearly double this time last year, up 83% on 12 months ago.
Over the three peak summer holiday months jobs in hospitality and tourism flattened out to drop a marginal 0.86%. The strong Australia dollar may explain the easing off of in-bound hospitality and tourism. Engineering and mining ñ another major export sector where revenue is influenced by the $A - has held up. This is because the more capital intensive nature of the business.
ìEveryone will be asking ’will the rapid rate of growth be sustained’?î Robert Olivier says. ìEven if next month does flatten off, it will be at a level higher than all of last year. The trend continues to be upwards.î
The Olivier Internet Job Index is calculated on the average of each month, but we also look at growth from week to week within the month. ìThere was 8.4% growth within February, so if nothing changes March will sustain these levels of ads,î Robert Olivier says.
The Olivier Internet Job Index
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