SHRM/CareerJournal.com survey suggests job outlook will improve later, rather than sooner in USA

economic upturn on the horizon, but little change is expected in hiring

Although some human resource professionals and most job seekers believe the economy will improve over the next six to twelve months, they are less optimistic that the employment outlook will get better, according to the new Job Opportunities Survey, jointly conducted by the Society for Human Resource Management (SHRM) and CareerJournal.com, The Wall Street Journal’s executive career site.

A total of 457 human resource (HR) professionals and 421 employees/job seekers responded to the survey. Four in ten HR professionals and about two-thirds of employees stated that the economy would improve in six months-although almost all respondents, still weary of the unpredictability of the challenged economy, expected it to stay about the same or improve slightly. About one-half of HR professionals, in fact, indicated that they expect the economy to remain about the same in the next six months.

When responses from this Job Opportunities Survey are compared to the same survey that was conducted in January 2003, greater numbers of both HR professionals and employees are now hopeful that the economy will improve in the short-term (six months) and long-term (12 months).

Even though there has been some small economic improvement recently, many companies conduct the bulk of their layoffs at the end of the year, said Tony Lee, editor in chief and general manager of CareerJournal.com. It may not be until mid-2004 before we see a meaningful decrease in the unemployment rate.

There is still uncertainty regarding the economy and concern for job security, said Debra Cohen, Ph.D., SPHR, vice president of Knowledge Development at SHRM. While fewer than a third of HR professionals said they’ll be hiring in the next six months, another third expects layoffs in the same period-and almost half of employees expect layoffs in the next year. This will continue to hurt morale and increase stress in the workplace for what appears to be another 12 months.

Employers cut jobs for a seventh consecutive month in August, with non-farm business payrolls declining by 93,000 in August. This continues a trend of payroll sluggishness in the face of a brightening economic outlook.

Layoffs
Layoffs occurred in forty-four percent of the HR professionals’ organizations in the preceding six months, although they expect the number of layoffs to decrease in the next six months. Less than one-quarter of HR respondents predict layoffs at their organizations in the coming year. A little more than one-quarter of employee respondents reported being laid off in the last six months although nearly three-quarters knew someone else who was laid off during that time. HR professionals expect layoffs to drop in the long-term (12 months) more so than the short-term (six months) while employees expect more layoffs over the short and long-term than HR professionals. Comparing HR professional responses from the January 2003 survey to this survey, it is interesting to note that more respondents in this survey predicted layoffs in the next six months compared to the January 2003 survey. This may be an indication that organizations will still be carrying out layoffs for some time to come.

Hiring Outlook
One-third of HR respondents indicated that there had been increased hiring at their organizations in the past six months. HR professionals are usually involved in formulating company projections for hiring, so their perceptions in this area are important in estimating if more jobs are expected to penetrate the market. When asked about hiring increases at their organizations in six and 12 months, HR professionals expect hiring will remain stable in the next six months relative to the preceding six months. Over the next 12 months, however, HR professionals predict double digit increases in hiring.

Overall, both groups appear to be somewhat more optimistic that the economy and job market will improve in the long term (12 months from now). HR professionals, however, are less committed to improvements in the economy and job market over the next six months - they are more likely to believe things will remain about the same. Employees are more likely to lean towards predicting economic and job market improvements in the next six months.