Manpower: EU enlargement unlikely to trigger flood of migrant labour

Enlargement of the EU Union on 1 May could be an answer to tackling skills shortages in the UK, comments Ruth Hounslow, Head of Public Affairs for Manpower UK. Contrary to much speculation, it is unlikely to result in a flood of migrant labour from the East to the West, however there will be an opportunity for employers to tap into new pools of labour from new member states.

On 1 May, 10 countries from Central and Eastern Europe and the Mediterranean join the existing 15 Member States to form an enlarged European Union. Manpower believes the effects of migration and any threat to UK jobs will be minimal.

Historic precedents suggest any movement of labour after enlargement will be limited. The EU has expanded in the past to take in low-wage economies without triggering mass movement of economic migrants. Spain joined the EU in 1986 with wage rates significantly lower than the rest of Europe. Mass migration did not result - in fact quite the opposite. Spaniards living elsewhere in Europe moved back to Spain and over a five or six year period, wage levels normalised in almost every job category.

Migration that will occur, is most likely to be temporary given the potential for economic growth in the accession countries, as well as the high cultural costs of migration such as separation from family members and language barriers.

In support of this, a recent Eurobarometer study shows that even under conditions of full freedom of movement, migration from all new Member States to all current Member States would be likely to be about 1% in total of the working age population of the new Member States over the next five years.

Adds Hounslow: Some movement is of course likely and will be welcomed by employers in the UK where there are skill shortages. For example, there is a 40,000 HGV driver shortage in the UK but there are drivers in the accession countries that could help fill this gap. With stringent vetting processes, language tests and training programmes, these drivers would be welcome relief to those distribution companies that are currently finding the driver shortage tough on business.

Other industries in the UK such as the medical sector, construction and IT may also welcome a wider labour pool to choose from. UK employers however, need to continue to invest in UK workforces, training and developing them to ensure a skilled, readily available labour pool is sustainable.