- Net EU migration remains at record highs– a challenge for the Remain campaign
- The high numbers of temporary migrants suggest parts of our economy depend on this – a challenge for the Leave campaign
New data, released today by the Office for National Statistics, estimates that net migration (the difference between immigration and emigration) to the UK was 333,000 in the year ending December 2015, compared to 313,000 in December 2014. Net EU migration is estimated to be 184,000 in the year ending December 2015. EU immigration to the UK makes up 43 per cent of total inward migration.
But these figures do not include temporary EU migrants coming for employment, study or work (staying for less than a year), which totalled around 250,000 for England and Wales in the year ending June 2014. These migrants are not included in the official statistics because they move to the UK for less than a year. In the long-term these migrants do not contribute to net migration because of their short stay.
What do today’s ONS figures mean?
- The ONS figures on long-term and short-term migration – which are based on the International Passenger Survey – have been the subject of much recent debate, particularly from Leave supporters. Both the Remain and Leave camps can take both positives and negatives from these figures:
- Short-term EU migration places pressures on services/housing and transport, has a knock-on impact on community relations, and makes it difficult for local authorities to plan services effectively.
- But the figures also highlight some clear advantages to the model of short-term migration, particularly for industries like agriculture (e.g. fruit picking) which require flexible and seasonal temporary labour, and in manufacturing and hospitality. According to IPPR’s new analysis of the Labour Force Survey, around a quarter of temporary agency workers are EU migrants and free movement therefore helps employers who need a flexible, temporary work force.
- Previous IPPR research has shown that the public care about the kind of migration more than absolute numbers – for example whether EU migrants are filling skills gaps, contributing in paying tax, settling and integrating into the local community.
Phoebe Griffith, associate director migration, integration and communities at IPPR, said:
“These ONS figures are the last set before the referendum. They show net migration of over 300,000 for the past five quarters. We expect the Leave campaign to use this as further evidence that leaving the EU is the only way of bringing down historically high migration.
“Yet our analysis shows that certain sectors in our economy have become heavily reliant on a temporary workforce from the EU. So the figures pose challenges for both sides.
“The figures show that the government’s net migration target is failing on its own terms, which further undermines public trust in immigration policy.”